The One That Got Away

August 23, 2026

Paralysis by analysis.

Most of us have heard the phrase. In simple terms, it means thinking about something so much that you become incapable of making a decision.

I suspect data-driven people are especially vulnerable when the numbers refuse to give us a clean yes or no. Instead, the answer lands somewhere in the dreaded gray area, which is basically purgatory for analytical minds.

Naturally, that calls for more analysis.

And around we go.

This happens to me occasionally when sourcing inventory and, if I’m being completely truthful, when buying things for myself.

What will the margin look like at this purchase price?

What happens after selling fees?

Will the buyer negotiate?

What is my realistic bottom line?

Second Half Supply Co. is a for-profit business, so those questions matter.

But sometimes you can ask so many questions that the opportunity walks away.

Literally.

The Fish That Spit the Hook

If you fish, you know the feeling.

You hook something, fight it all the way back to the boat or shoreline, and just when you think the battle is over, the fish throws the hook.

Gone.

No photo.

No catch-and-release moment.

Nothing except a story about the one that got away.

Yesterday, I had the thrift-store equivalent.

It was a blue-and-white alpaca sweater.

Size large.

Handcrafted.

And pretty fantastic.

There were several reasons it caught my attention.

First, if you have read much of this blog, you already know I love clothing with a story. By the time I had inspected this sweater, I had already invented most of its previous life in my head.

Second, it had little woven alpacas on it.

I have a thing for alpacas.

Peru is on my bucket list partly because of the history and Machu Picchu, but I would be lying if I claimed the abundance of llamas and alpacas was not part of the attraction.

They're fantastic animals (today's photo is Lindy walking one at a fantastic little farm in Ireland we visited).

Right up until somebody gets spit on.

But I digress.

Then the Data Guy Took Over

I looked at the sweater.

I liked the sweater.

Then my analytical brain entered the chat.

Could I sell it?

How quickly?

What would the margin be?

Was the price right?

Was it interesting enough?

I decided to pass on it temporarily while I looked through a few more items.

The sweater, however, continued living rent-free inside my head.

A few minutes later, I reached an important conclusion:

Worst-case scenario, I could wear it myself.

Texas only gives us a handful of truly cold days, but Lindy prefers the house approximately seventeen degrees colder than I do, so an alpaca sweater could practically qualify as survival equipment.

Suddenly, this had become a no-lose proposition.

Unfortunately, it had become a no-lose proposition for somebody else.

While I was debating with myself, another shopper had apparently noticed me wrestling with the decision.

The moment I moved down the rack, she swooped in like a bird of prey.

She grabbed the sweater.

Game over.

The fish spit the hook.

I stood there watching my imaginary Peruvian alpaca masterpiece disappear down the aisle with its new owner.

Sometimes You Just Grab It

Lindy would have bought it immediately.

She has a much better instinct for style-driven pieces than I do. She sees something visually interesting and understands that the right buyer may connect with it before there is enough data to prove the case.

I prefer numbers.

Usually, that keeps me out of trouble.

Yesterday, the data guy struck out twice on the same pitch.

That is difficult to accomplish in baseball.

Remarkably easy in thrifting.

There is still an important distinction here. I am not suggesting everyone should abandon discipline and start throwing anything remotely interesting into the shopping cart.

Price still matters.

Condition still matters.

Demand still matters.

But sometimes you already know you like something, the price is reasonable, and the downside is minimal.

At that point, more analysis may not improve the decision.

It may simply give somebody else enough time to make it for you.

So today's advice is free:

If you really want it and the price makes sense, grab it before you start writing a dissertation about whether you should.

Otherwise, you may end up writing a blog about the one that got away.

Happy thrifting!

Michael T.
Second Half Supply Co.

From the Hunt

Check the Date Before You Start the Car

Here is a public service announcement for anyone who likes yard sales.

Yard sales can be fantastic sourcing territory.

Acquisition costs can be extremely low, negotiation is usually part of the game, and you can find everything from clothing and collectibles to completely unexpected treasures.

But modern yard-sale hunting has one particular hazard:

Old advertisements.

Years ago, people advertised yard sales in something called a newspaper.

For our younger readers, a newspaper was essentially social media printed on enormous sheets of paper, except nobody could argue with strangers in the comment section.

Today, Facebook Marketplace and neighborhood social-media groups are useful places to find sales.

The problem is that old listings do not always disappear.

And if you are moving too quickly, you may see:

Huge Yard Sale! Saturday!

...and completely overlook the fact that Saturday occurred three months ago.

Then you drive across town, burn gas, arrive at the address, and discover there is absolutely no yard sale.

Instead, you get to watch some guy who really should be wearing a shirt mow his lawn.

Ask me how I know.

So before heading out:

Check the date.

Check the time.

Check whether the seller posted an update.